Betting Odds and Bets for Cardinals vs Mariners – 9/8/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners will host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 8, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Currently, the Mariners sit at 75-68, enjoying an above-average season, while the Cardinals stand at 72-72, reflecting a more average performance. The Mariners are a significant betting favorite with a moneyline of -210, indicating a strong expectation for them to win this game.

In their last game, the Mariners showcased their pitching prowess, with Bryan Woo projected to take the mound. Woo, ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has a commendable 12-7 record and a stellar ERA of 3.02 this year. However, his xFIP of 3.57 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and his projections indicate he could allow 1.8 earned runs over an average of 5.9 innings. The Mariners’ offense ranks 12th overall, highlighted by their impressive power, as they sit 3rd in MLB for home runs.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has struggled this season with a record of 7-10 and an ERA of 4.89. Mikolas’s xERA of 5.46 indicates he may have been lucky, and he projects to allow 2.7 earned runs in 5.0 innings, which is below average. His low strikeout rate and high flyball percentage could be problematic against a potent Mariners lineup that has hit 210 home runs this year.

Given these matchups, the Mariners’ elite pitching and powerful offense set them up for a favorable outcome against a Cardinals team that has shown weaknesses throughout the season.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Miles Mikolas’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.4% vs. 49% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit 30.4% of their balls in the air at least 100 mph this year, ranking them as the #21 team in the majors by this standard.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all SPs, Bryan Woo’s fastball velocity of 95 mph grades out in the 80th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Cal Raleigh has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year’s 94.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 130 games (+14.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)
  Jorge Polanco has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+17.60 Units / 196% ROI)