Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-150
The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Houston Astros on September 9, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams with differing fortunes this season. The Blue Jays, currently at 82-61, are enjoying a solid campaign and are positioned strongly for a postseason run. The Astros, at 78-66, are also above average but find themselves needing to pick up steam. Both teams enter this game after narrow losses; the Blue Jays fell to the Yankees, 4-3, while the Astros lost to the Angels, 4-2.
On the mound, Toronto is set to start Shane Bieber, who ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system. Bieber has a solid 2-1 record this season, though he did struggle in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings pitched. His xFIP of 2.03 suggests that he may have been unlucky and is likely due for a better performance. Bieber projects to pitch 6.0 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, but he faces an Astros lineup that ranks as the 13th best in the league.
Luis Garcia will take the hill for Houston, bringing a 1-0 record and an average ERA of 4.50. However, he has only made one start this year, and projections indicate he could struggle against a high-performing Blue Jays offense that ranks 2nd in the league. The Blue Jays also have the top batting average in MLB, highlighting their ability to capitalize on Garcia’s weaknesses.
With a moneyline of -150, the Blue Jays are favored to win this contest, projecting a high team total of 4.35 runs. Given both teams’ recent struggles and the matchups on the mound, this game could tilt the playoff race in Toronto’s favor if they can harness their offensive strength against Garcia.
Houston Astros Insights
- Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)Christian Walker has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Houston’s 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in MLB: #29 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-150)Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Ernie Clement’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 87.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 80.2-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 89 games (+21.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 127 games (+14.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)