Betting Guide and Odds for Twins vs Guardians – Friday August 1, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on August 1, 2025, the stakes remain low, with both teams hovering around .500 and below average in their respective standings. The Guardians sit at 54-54, while the Twins are struggling at 51-57. This matchup marks the first game of a series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum after their last outings—Cleveland enjoyed a shutout victory against their opponent, winning 5-0, while Minnesota suffered a heavy defeat, losing 13-1.

Cleveland will send Gavin Williams to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 6-4 record and a respectable ERA of 3.51. Although he ranks as the 84th best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performances suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.30. Williams projects to pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, though he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.2 per outing.

On the other side, Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan, who has been impressive this season, boasting a 10-5 record and an excellent ERA of 2.82, making him the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB. Ryan’s projections indicate he will pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, but like Williams, he too has faced issues, averaging 1.3 walks per game.

Offensively, the Guardians rank a dismal 26th in MLB, with a 30th place batting average, while the Twins sit at 18th overall, indicating both teams struggle to generate consistent runs. The Guardians’ current moneyline of -130 suggests they are favored, but with both teams’ recent performances, this game could be closer than expected. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, reflecting the cautious outlook from the betting markets.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has utilized his secondary offerings 9.2% less often this season (36.4%) than he did last season (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Christian Vazquez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.5-mph figure last year has dropped to 86.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16° angle is among the highest in the league this year (#6 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, batters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Angel Martinez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)