Betting Guide and Odds for Rockies vs Mets – Sunday June 1, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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New York Mets

On June 1, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field for the third game of their series. The Mets are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 36-22, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 9-49. In their last matchup, the Mets emerged victorious, highlighting the stark contrast in their current forms.

The Mets are projected to start Clay Holmes, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Holmes has been solid this season, with a 2.98 ERA and a 5-3 Win/Loss record over 11 starts. His ability to induce ground balls (56% GB rate) will be crucial against a Rockies offense that has hit just 48 home runs this year, ranking them 4th least in the league.

In contrast, the Rockies will counter with Carson Palmquist, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled mightily this season, holding an 8.78 ERA with a 0-3 record over just three starts. Palmquist’s projections indicate he will likely pitch around 4.7 innings today, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, which does not bode well against a Mets offense that ranks 9th best in the league.

With the Mets’ offensive prowess against a struggling Rockies pitching staff, they hold an implied team total of 5.26 runs, significantly higher than the Rockies’ lowly 2.74 runs. This matchup heavily favors the Mets, as they look to continue their dominance and capitalize on the Rockies’ misfortunes.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Carson Palmquist – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  In his last 3 GS, Carson Palmquist has struggled when it comes to striking batters out and has only managed to post 6 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Sam Hilliard – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Sam Hilliard is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .300 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Clay Holmes is expected to record an average of 17.4 outs today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Juan Soto stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 54 games (+17.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)