Texas Rangers
Chicago White Sox
(-105/-115)+135
The Chicago White Sox are struggling this season with a record of 16-35, sitting firmly at the bottom of the American League standings. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers are hovering just above .500 at 25-27, placing them in the middle of the pack but still underperforming. This matchup on May 24, 2025, marks the second game of this series after the White Sox managed a surprising 4-1 victory over the Rangers yesterday.
The White Sox are set to start Bryse Wilson, who has had a challenging year, posting a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an alarming ERA of 6.00. Wilson’s last start was particularly rough, as he allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings. While he’s projected to pitch about 5.1 innings today, expectations remain low as he’s likely to give up around 3.1 earned runs. On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Jack Leiter, a pitcher who possesses a 4.25 ERA but has shown some inconsistency. His last outing was more favorable, allowing only 3 earned runs over 7 innings.
What stands out in this matchup is the disparity in offensive performance. The White Sox offense ranks as the 30th best in MLB, struggling significantly with a mere 40 home runs this season, while the Rangers, although not exceptional, are better positioned at 27th. The projections suggest that Jack Leiter’s high-flyball tendencies may not be as damaging against a White Sox lineup that has shown little power.
With the White Sox’s offensive woes and Wilson’s ongoing struggles, the Rangers are favored to bounce back today, but the White Sox’s recent win could provide a glimmer of hope for an upset at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)Jack Leiter is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue in the majors today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jonah Heim has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph dropping to 82.4-mph in the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Texas Rangers – 2H MoneylineThe Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Bryse Wilson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Bryse Wilson in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Extreme groundball hitters like Joshua Palacios tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Lenyn Sosa has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 36 games (+18.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 51% ROI)