Betting Guide and Odds for Athletics vs Reds – Thursday August 29, 2024

Oakland Athletics

@

Cincinnati Reds

In a matchup set for August 29, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Oakland Athletics at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Reds holding a record of 63-70 and the Athletics at 58-75, indicating below-average and poor performances, respectively. The stakes are high as this game marks the third in their series, following the Athletics’ 9-6 victory over the Reds just a day prior.

Julian Aguiar, projected to start for the Reds, has shown flashes of effectiveness despite being ranked the 257th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ERA of 3.60 this year is solid, though his 5.75 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far. He pitched well in his last outing, going six innings with only two earned runs, but he projects to struggle today, averaging 4.8 innings with 3.1 earned runs allowed.

On the other hand, J.T. Ginn, who has yet to start a game this season, is coming off two appearances out of the bullpen. His ERA of 2.45 is impressive, but his 3.85 xFIP indicates potential regression. Ginn’s ability to generate strikeouts could play a crucial role against a Reds lineup that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts.

Interestingly, while the Reds have a decent projection for scoring, averaging 5.29 runs according to the leading MLB projection system, the Athletics project even higher at 5.84 runs. This could give Oakland the edge in a game expected to be closely contested, especially given their strong power rankings, where they sit 4th in home runs.

As both teams look to gain momentum, the matchup between Aguiar and Ginn could ultimately dictate the outcome, making this a game to watch for bettors looking for potential value in the Athletics.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  J.T. Ginn is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in MLB — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#3-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Oakland Athletics have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Gelof, Daz Cameron, Brent Rooker, Max Schuemann, Kyle McCann).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Julian Aguiar – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Julian Aguiar in the 14th percentile among all starters in the game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Will Benson has big-time power (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (35.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher J.T. Ginn has a pitch-to-contact profile (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Benson.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+8.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+13.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+16.55 Units / 29% ROI)