Bets and Betting Tips for White Sox vs Orioles – May 31, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox meet again at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the second game of their series on May 31, 2025. The Orioles, currently struggling in the American League East with a record of 20-36, managed to take the opener yesterday, edging the White Sox 2-1. Meanwhile, Chicago’s woes continue as they sit at 18-39, ranked 5th in the AL Central.

Dean Kremer, the Orioles’ projected starter, comes off a solid outing in his last start on May 25, where he pitched 5 innings without yielding any earned runs. Kremer’s season ERA stands at 5.02, but his 4.45 xFIP suggests he might be due for some better luck. Despite his below-average strikeout rate of 4.7 strikeouts per game, Kremer has a strong matchup against a White Sox lineup that has struggled to generate power this season, ranking 3rd lowest in home runs.

On the other side, the White Sox will send Davis Martin to the mound. While Martin holds a solid ERA of 3.45, his advanced projections indicate that he may not maintain that level, suggesting a decline in performance could be on the horizon. Martin’s low walk rate could favor him against an Orioles offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest walks. However, with the Orioles’ offense showing some life and ranking 10th in home runs, they could exploit any mistakes Martin makes.

The Orioles’ bullpen is rated 3rd best in MLB according to Power Rankings, a stark contrast to the White Sox’s 29th rank. This discrepancy could ultimately be the deciding factor as the game total is set at a modest 8.5 runs, with the Orioles favored at -165 to win. As the Orioles look to build on their victory and capitalize on their bullpen strength, they appear poised to take this matchup against a floundering White Sox squad.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Davis Martin has gone to his secondary pitches 9.3% less often this season (62.4%) than he did last season (71.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Josh Rojas’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 89.2-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 84.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Davis Martin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Korey Lee, the White Sox’s expected catcher today, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  In his previous start, Dean Kremer allowed a monstrous 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+15.45 Units / 154% ROI)