Bets and Betting Tips for Rangers vs Astros – July 11, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Texas Rangers in what promises to be an exciting American League West matchup on July 11, 2025. Both teams are coming off notable performances, with the Astros losing their last game 4-2 and the Rangers securing a strong 11-4 victory. As the Astros look to bounce back, they currently sit with a solid 55-38 record, while the Rangers are at 46-48, struggling to find consistency this season.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Lance McCullers Jr., who has had a rocky season with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 5.82, ranking him as the 132nd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his xFIP of 4.59 suggests he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. McCullers Jr. is coming off a strong outing, where he pitched 6 innings and allowed only 1 earned run, indicating he might be turning a corner.

Opposing him will be Jack Leiter, who has struggled this year and is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. With a 4-6 record and a 4.32 ERA, Leiter’s projections suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate, as his 5.02 xERA indicates a potential regression. His last start was abbreviated, going just 4 innings with 2 earned runs.

The Astros boast the 8th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 1st place ranking in team batting average. In contrast, the Rangers sit at 25th in overall offensive rankings. Given the Astros’ superior hitting and the potential for McCullers Jr. to capitalize on Leiter’s weaknesses, the projections favor Houston in this matchup. With the Astros’ potent offense facing a struggling pitcher, they could find the offensive explosion they need to secure a win.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Generating 15 outs per outing this year on average, Jack Leiter checks in at the 25th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Higashioka generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Lance McCullers Jr. must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 72.5% of the time, checking in at the 97th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Cam Smith is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 53 games (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+14.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+7.50 Units / 75% ROI)