Bets and Betting Tips for Orioles vs Blue Jays – March 27, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Toronto Blue Jays

On March 27, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre for the first game of their series. The stakes are high as both teams look to improve their standings in the competitive American League East. The Blue Jays are currently positioned in the middle of the pack, while the Orioles are making a strong case for a playoff spot, ranking as the 5th best offense in MLB this season.

Jose Berrios is set to take the mound for the Blue Jays, coming off a rough outing where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 3 innings. His advanced stats reflect a troubling trend, with a ranking of 223rd among starting pitchers, indicating he has struggled significantly. Berrios projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 1.5 walks per game raises concerns.

Conversely, Zach Eflin will start for the Orioles. Eflin has been solid this season, ranking 51st among MLB starters. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings with a good average of 2.5 earned runs allowed. Despite some weaknesses in his strikeout rate, his overall performance suggests he could be a reliable asset in this matchup.

The Blue Jays’ offense is ranked 16th overall, but their power numbers are lackluster, sitting 26th in home runs. In contrast, the Orioles boast a potent lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs and 7th in batting average, showcasing their offensive firepower.

With the Blue Jays currently favored at -115 and an implied team total of 4.30 runs, they will need their bats to come alive against Eflin to secure a victory. Meanwhile, the Orioles, with an implied total of 4.20 runs, will look to capitalize on Berrios’s recent struggles. This matchup promises to be a thrilling contest as both teams vie for crucial early-season momentum.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Ramon Urias hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average hurler, Jose Berrios has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 3.0 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 2nd-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (16.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games at home (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 89 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Jordan Westburg has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 away games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)