Bets and Betting Tips for Mets vs Royals – July 12, 2025

New York Mets

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals return to Kauffman Stadium on July 12, 2025, for the second game of their interleague series against the New York Mets. After a tough loss yesterday where the Royals fell 8-3, they are looking to bounce back against a Mets team that has been performing well this season, currently sitting at 54-41.

The Royals, with a record of 46-49, have struggled offensively, ranking 26th in MLB. Their pitching staff has shown some promise, particularly with Angel Zerpa, who, despite starting only 0 games this year, has a solid Win/Loss record of 3-1 and an above-average ERA of 4.03. Moreover, Zerpa’s 3.30 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve as the season progresses. However, he is projected to pitch only 1.0 innings today, which raises concerns about his effectiveness.

On the other hand, the Mets will send Frankie Montas to the mound. Montas has had a rough season, with a 6.14 ERA and only 3 starts under his belt. His low strikeout rate and high earned run projection of 3.0 for today may work in the Royals’ favor, especially given that they rank 2nd in the league for lowest strikeouts. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Royals to capitalize on Montas’s struggles.

Despite their recent offensive woes, the Royals’ best hitter has been on fire lately, boasting a .429 batting average over the past week. With the betting markets reflecting a close match—Kansas City currently holds a +110 moneyline—the Royals may have a chance to pull off an upset against the Mets, who are currently favored at -130. The game total sits at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive showdown at the plate.

New York Mets Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Frankie Montas has averaged 77.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 12th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Michael Lorenzen in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 4th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Salvador Perez has average 0 steals per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 78 games (+28.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.60 Units / 26% ROI)