Bets and Betting Tips for Mets vs Royals – July 12, 2025

New York Mets

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals host the New York Mets on July 12, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their current form. The Royals, with a record of 46-49, are having a below-average season, while the Mets sit at a solid 54-41, showcasing their strong performance throughout the year. In their last matchup, the Mets edged out the Royals, and they will look to build on that momentum.

Michael Lorenzen is projected to take the mound for Kansas City, bringing a Win/Loss record of 5-8 and an average ERA of 4.61. Despite ranking as the 189th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Lorenzen’s 4.11 xERA suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. However, he faces a challenging task against Frankie Montas, who, despite his struggles this season with a 6.14 ERA and a 1-1 record in just three starts, also has an xFIP of 4.49, indicating he might be due for a turnaround.

Offensively, the Royals rank 26th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Mets boast a 9th best ranking, showcasing their ability to score. Kansas City’s offense has been particularly weak in power, ranking 28th in home runs, which could hinder their chances against Montas, who has been a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd in fewest strikeouts.

With a Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Royals’ high implied team total of 4.53 runs. The projections suggest this could be a closer game than anticipated, especially as the Royals look to leverage their home-field advantage against a struggling Mets bullpen ranked dead last in MLB.

New York Mets Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Frankie Montas has averaged 77.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 12th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 4th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (60.7% vs. 51.7% last season) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)
  Ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Salvador Perez has average 0 steals per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 78 games (+28.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)