Bets and Betting Tips for Marlins vs Phillies – September 23, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park on September 23, 2025, the significance of this matchup is palpable. The Phillies are riding high with a 92-64 record, firmly positioned for postseason play, while the Marlins sit at 76-80, having seen their hopes fade. In a recent turn of events, the Phillies faced a tough loss against the Marlins, falling 9-2 in their last game, while Miami secured a win over the same opponent, 4-2, showcasing their ability to upset stronger teams.

On the mound, Cristopher Sanchez is set to start for the Phillies. Sanchez, who ranks as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, boasts an impressive 13-5 record with a stellar 2.66 ERA this season. He projects to pitch around 6.0 innings and allow only 2.1 earned runs, although he has struggled with walks and hits allowed. Meanwhile, the Marlins will counter with Edward Cabrera, who has had an average season at 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA. Cabrera’s recent performance has been shaky, with his last outing resulting in 5 earned runs over just 4 innings.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 4th best team in MLB, with a significant edge in both batting average and runs scored compared to the Marlins, who are middle of the pack in overall offensive production. The projections favor the Phillies to score around 4.42 runs, while the Marlins are anticipated to muster only 3.08 runs.

Given Sanchez’s elite status and the Phillies’ potent offense, they appear to be well-positioned to turn the tide from their previous encounter and claim a victory in this critical matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Edward Cabrera’s change-up rate has fallen by 8.1% from last season to this one (33.2% to 25.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Xavier Edwards has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Cristopher Sanchez was firing on all cylinders in his last GS and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Otto Kemp – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Otto Kemp’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.2-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 83.9-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Harrison Bader pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 70 games at home (+16.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+180)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 away games (+21.55 Units / 44% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+7.05 Units / 20% ROI)