Bets and Betting Tips for Marlins vs Phillies – September 23, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies

On September 23, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park for the first game of a crucial series. Both teams are at opposite ends of the standings, with the Phillies holding a strong 92-64 record, while the Marlins sit at 76-80. The Phillies are firmly in the playoff picture, showcasing their elite status, especially with Cristopher Sanchez projected to take the mound. Sanchez, ranked 8th among MLB starters, has been a key contributor to the Phillies’ success, featuring a stellar 2.66 ERA and a 13-5 record this season.

In contrast, Edward Cabrera, projected to start for the Marlins, carries a 3.57 ERA and a 7-7 record. His projections indicate a struggle, with an average of just 3.6 innings pitched expected today, which could spell trouble against a potent Phillies offense ranked 4th overall in the league. The Phillies also excel in batting average, sitting at 3rd, and have shown power with 9th in home runs this season.

Despite the Marlins having a decent batting average ranking of 9th, they have struggled with power, ranking 26th in home runs. This matchup favors Sanchez, a high-groundball pitcher who thrives against offenses lacking pop. The game total is currently set at an average 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive game.

The Phillies’ bullpen ranks 6th in the league, giving them an additional advantage if the game remains close. With Sanchez’s elite strikeout ability and a solid offense behind him, the Phillies are positioned well to capitalize on their favorable matchup and continue their push for October baseball.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Edward Cabrera’s change-up rate has fallen by 8.1% from last season to this one (33.2% to 25.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Heriberto Hernandez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Cristopher Sanchez was firing on all cylinders in his last GS and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Otto Kemp – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Otto Kemp’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.2-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 83.9-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Harrison Bader pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 70 games at home (+16.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+185)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 away games (+21.55 Units / 44% ROI)
• Otto Kemp – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Otto Kemp has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.00 Units / 28% ROI)