Bets and Betting Tips for Mariners vs White Sox – May 20, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox

On May 20, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Guaranteed Rate Field for the second game of their series. The Mariners won the first matchup yesterday, defeating the White Sox 5-1. Currently, the White Sox sit at a dismal 14-34, ranking as the worst team in MLB, while the Mariners are a competitive 27-19 and boast the 10th best offense in the league, according to the leading MLB projection system.

Chicago’s struggles are reflected in their offensive rankings, sitting 30th in both overall team batting average and runs scored. Their starting pitcher, Adrian Houser, is projected to allow an average of 2.8 earned runs over 5.0 innings today, which, while bad, is still better than his last outing where he got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 5 innings. The White Sox bullpen is also ranked 30th in MLB, further complicating their chances against a potent Mariners lineup that features the 6th best home run production.

The Mariners will counter with Casey Lawrence, who has had his own difficulties on the mound, recently allowing 5 earned runs in just 3 innings during his last start. His projections are not favorable either, as he is expected to pitch only 3.7 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs. However, Seattle’s offense, led by their best hitter with a 0.922 OPS, has been able to mask some of Lawrence’s shortcomings.

With the Mariners favored at -175 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs, they appear to have a solid edge. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s low implied total of 3.69 runs reflects their ongoing struggles. This matchup sets the stage for Seattle to capitalize on their strengths while Chicago desperately seeks to turn their season around.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jorge Polanco has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 92-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Casey Lawrence – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Typically, hitters like Joshua Palacios who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jhonathan Diaz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-170)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.95 Units / 44% ROI)
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Dylan Moore has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)