Bets and Betting Tips for Cubs vs Orioles – (July 11, 2024

Chicago Cubs

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs gear up for the third game of their Interleague series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 11, 2024, the Orioles are looking to maintain their strong season. With a 57-35 record, Baltimore is having a remarkable year, currently boasting the 2nd-best offense in MLB. The Cubs, on the other hand, have struggled with a 44-49 record, ranking 19th in offense.

The Orioles will send Albert Suarez to the mound, a right-hander whose season statistics are a bit misleading. Despite an impressive 2.48 ERA, his 4.63 xFIP suggests he’s benefited from some good fortune and might regress. Suarez is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.5 walks. This could spell trouble against a Cubs lineup that’s been heating up, led by Ian Happ, who’s posted a .429 batting average and a 1.405 OPS over his last six games.

The Cubs counter with Justin Steele, a lefty who has quietly been one of the best pitchers in MLB, ranking 22nd. Steele’s 2.95 ERA and 3.51 xFIP indicate strong underlying performance, though he’s had only one win this season. Projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, have Steele going 5.6 innings and allowing 2.7 earned runs. However, facing the Orioles’ lineup, which ranks 1st in home runs and 5th in batting average, could be a daunting task.

Baltimore’s offense appears to have the edge, driven by the recent hot streak of Austin Hays, who’s hit .500 with a 1.295 OPS in his last four games. The advanced-stat Power Rankings also highlight Baltimore’s bullpen as the 12th best, slightly better than the Cubs at 15th.

Betting markets indicate a close game, with the Orioles having a 54% implied win probability and the Cubs at 46%. With both teams projected to score around 8.5 runs combined, fans can expect a competitive match. The Orioles, however, seem to have a slight advantage with their superior offense and the favorable pitching matchup against a Cubs team that has underperformed this season.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all starters, Justin Steele’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph is in the 16th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tomas Nido – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Tomas Nido is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chicago Cubs hitters jointly place 7th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 92.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Albert Suarez will average a combined total of 6 strikeouts and walks in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In the last 14 days, Cedric Mullins II’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Today, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.9% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 77 games (+13.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-165)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.90 Units / 49% ROI)