Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
(-110/-110)-105
The Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros square off in a key matchup on September 28, 2025, after the Astros dominated the Angels in their last game, winning 6-1. With the Angels sitting at 72-89 this season, they have struggled significantly, ranking 25th in offensive production. In contrast, the Astros are faring much better at 86-75, showcasing a more balanced attack, ranked 15th overall.
Samuel Aldegheri is projected to start for the Angels, entering the game with a rough 0-1 record and a staggering 8.00 ERA. Despite showing some potential in his xFIP at 6.98, Aldegheri’s performance has been inconsistent, and he projects to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs today. His control issues could be a concern, especially against the Astros, one of the least patient offenses in baseball, ranked 5th for the fewest walks.
On the other side, Lance McCullers Jr. takes the mound for the Astros, holding a 2-5 record with a 6.71 ERA. Though his expected performance suggests he might be due for a rebound, he still projects to allow 2.0 earned runs over approximately 4.3 innings pitched. Considering that both pitchers have struggled this season, the matchup could hinge on which offense capitalizes more effectively.
While the Angels boast a high power ranking with 4th in home runs, their overall lack of offensive consistency remains a major issue. The projections favor the Astros slightly, with an implied team total of 4.66 runs compared to the Angels’ 4.34. As they battle it out in the series, the Angels will need to overcome their recent woes to secure a win at Angel Stadium.
Houston Astros Insights
- Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Lance McCullers Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 8 opposing hitters in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Brice Matthews – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Brice Matthews has big-time HR ability (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (33.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Samuel Aldegheri struggles to strike batters out (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Matthews.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Houston Astros hitters as a group rank among the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( worst) when it comes to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Mike Trout has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 100.1-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Sebastian Rivero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sebastian Rivero in the 2nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 145 games (+15.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Mike Trout has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)