Bets and Betting Tips for Astros vs Angels – September 28, 2025

Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels

On September 28, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Houston Astros at Angel Stadium in what promises to be a compelling American League West matchup. The Angels are having a challenging season with a record of 72-89, while the Astros stand at 86-75 and are experiencing an above-average year. In their last outing, the Astros secured a win against the Angels, and they have been performing well overall.

The projections suggest a significant pitching mismatch as the Angels are set to start Samuel Aldegheri, a left-hander who has struggled mightily this year. Aldegheri has a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and a woeful ERA of 8.00, ranking him as the 318th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projected performance today does not inspire confidence; he is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing approximately 3.1 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.9 walks.

In contrast, the Astros will counter with Lance McCullers Jr., a right-handed pitcher with an ERA of 6.71. While McCullers Jr. is also struggling by MLB standards, he projects to pitch 4.2 innings with a more manageable expected output of 2.1 earned runs.

At the plate, the Angels rank as the 24th best offense in MLB, despite their impressive power rank of 4th in home runs. In stark contrast, the Astros sit in the middle with a ranking of 15th in offense, but they have a hitter enjoying a strong stretch, boasting a .360 batting average over the last week.

Given the current form of both teams and the unfortunate matchup for the Angels, the Astros look to be in a strong position to capitalize on Aldegheri’s struggles, making them the favorites heading into this game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Lance McCullers Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 8 opposing hitters in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zach Cole Jr. – Over/Under Total Bases
  Zach Cole has strong power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (38.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Samuel Aldegheri doesn’t generate many whiffs (0th percentile K%) — great news for Cole.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Mike Trout – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mike Trout has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 99.2-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Teodosio – Over/Under Total Bases
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Teodosio in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under Team Total
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under Team Total
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 145 games (+15.40 Units / 9% ROI)