Best Player Prop Bets for Phillies vs Marlins – Wednesday, June 18th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on June 18, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, the stakes are clear: the Marlins, sitting at 29-42, are struggling this season, while the Phillies boast a strong record of 43-30. In their last outing on June 17, the Marlins managed a notable win against the Phillies, taking the game 8-3, which could provide a confidence boost heading into this matchup.

The matchup features Adam Mazur for the Marlins, projected to pitch only 4.8 innings with an average of 2.7 earned runs allowed. Mazur has struggled this year, ranking as the 275th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the less effective options on the mound. In contrast, the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, who has been exceptional, owning a 2.32 ERA and a 5-1 record this season. Suarez’s most recent start was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings without allowing any earned runs.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 7th best offense in MLB, particularly excelling with a .290 team batting average, which is 2nd best overall. Their ability to get on base consistently, combined with their depth in the lineup, poses a significant challenge for the Marlins’ pitching staff, which ranks 25th in the league according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Despite the Marlins’ recent victory and solid batting average ranking of 9th in MLB, their lack of power—ranking 26th in home runs—could hinder them against a pitcher like Suarez, who induces ground balls 55% of the time. With the Game Total set at an average of 8.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Phillies, who have a projected team total of 4.77 runs, suggesting a favorable offensive performance is expected.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ranger Suarez has used his secondary offerings 6.2% more often this year (55.3%) than he did last year (49.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies bats as a group rank among the elite in Major League Baseball this year (7th-) when it comes to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+165)
  The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 87.1-mph average last season has lowered to 84.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+8.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-200)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 43 games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)
  Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 54% ROI)