Best Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Cubs – Friday, September 5th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 5, 2025, they do so with a strong grip on their playoff aspirations. Currently sitting at 80-60, the Cubs have established themselves as a competitive force in the National League, while the Nationals, with a record of 56-83, have struggled throughout the season.

In their last matchup, the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess, and they will look to continue that momentum against a Nationals team that ranks 25th in MLB in offensive efficiency. The projections suggest that the Cubs’ lineup, which boasts the 10th best offense in the league, could exploit the weaknesses of Jake Irvin, who has had a challenging season with a 5.42 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 15.2%.

On the mound for the Cubs, Javier Assad is projected to start, bringing a 4.05 ERA and a solid groundball rate of 51%. While Assad’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, he faces a Nationals offense that has produced the 3rd least home runs in MLB. This matchup could favor Assad, especially since he tends to avoid walks, and the Nationals are among the teams with the fewest walks drawn.

With a Game Total set at a high 10.5 runs, betting lines favor the Cubs heavily with a moneyline of -225, reflecting their strong implied team total of 6.26 runs. The Nationals, on the other hand, are seen as underdogs at +195, with an implied total of just 4.24 runs. Given the Cubs’ strong bullpen, ranked 5th best in MLB, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their home advantage and secure a victory in this pivotal matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Jake Irvin has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  James Wood has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals ranks them as the #24 club in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Javier Assad has gone to his sinker 6.4% more often this year (42.2%) than he did last season (35.8%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Seiya Suzuki has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .339 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .381 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-210)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+15.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 115 games (+13.22 Units / 10% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)