Best Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs D-Backs – Friday, June 27th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On June 27, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Miami Marlins at Chase Field in a National League showdown. The Diamondbacks enter this matchup with a record of 41-39, positioning themselves in the middle of the pack, while the Marlins struggle with a 34-45 record, reflecting a challenging season. Notably, the Diamondbacks are coming off a strong performance where they showcased their offensive prowess.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for Arizona. With a solid Win/Loss record of 7-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.39, Kelly is ranked as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness this season. Despite a slightly elevated xERA of 3.92, the projections suggest he will pitch around 6.0 innings and allow an average of 2.4 earned runs, which bodes well against a struggling Marlins offense.

Eury Perez, the Marlins’ starter, has had a rough go this season with a 0-2 record and a staggering ERA of 6.17. Although his xFIP of 5.01 suggests he might improve, he faces a daunting challenge against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks as the 3rd best offense in MLB. With 115 home runs this season, the Diamondbacks’ power could exploit Perez’s high flyball rate, turning potential outs into home runs.

The Diamondbacks are significant favorites with a moneyline of -170, reflecting their superior offensive capabilities and Kelly’s strong pitching. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with a moneyline of +150, will need a standout performance from Perez to have a chance. As the game total is set at 8.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the Diamondbacks’ ability to capitalize on Perez’s struggles while looking for a bounce-back effort from their offense.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball batters like Jesus Sanchez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Dane Myers, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 81st percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 69 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+11.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.20 Units / 230% ROI)