Best Player Prop Bets for Braves vs Tigers – Sunday, September 21st, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on September 21, 2025, the stakes are heightened in this interleague matchup. The Tigers currently sit at 85-70, enjoying an above-average season, while the Braves, at 72-83, have struggled to find their rhythm, ranking as one of the lower-performing teams this year. Detroit took the previous game in the series, setting a competitive tone for this crucial matchup.

Tigers’ Casey Mize projects to take the mound against Spencer Strider of the Braves. Mize, ranked as the 91st-best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has had a solid year with a 14-5 record and a 3.88 ERA. However, his projections indicate some concern, as he averages just 5.0 innings pitched with a high 4.9 hits allowed per game. Mize’s low walk rate (5.7 BB%) is a point of strength against a Braves offense that ranks 3rd in MLB in walks, potentially giving him an edge.

On the flip side, Strider is having a tougher season, holding a 6-13 record and a 4.64 ERA, although his 4.12 SIERA suggests he may have been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. His projections show he averages 5.3 innings but struggles with allowing 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks.

The Tigers’ offense ranks 12th overall and shows strength with a good power display, hitting the 10th-most home runs in the league. Meanwhile, the Braves sit at 14th overall with an average power output. The Tigers are viewed favorably, with a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, and their bullpen is ranked 9th in MLB, which may prove crucial as the game unfolds. Overall, the combination of pitching matchups and offensive rankings points toward the Tigers having the upper hand as they aim to build on their success in this vital series.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Among all starters, Spencer Strider’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Marcell Ozuna has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Atlanta Braves with a 20.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Casey Mize is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Spencer Torkelson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 48 of their last 76 games at home (+19.23 Units / 22% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 away games (+12.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+215/-290)
  Michael Harris II has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)