Athletics vs Rangers Bets and Betting Trends – 9/01/24

Oakland Athletics

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers face off against the Oakland Athletics on September 1, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams as they continue a three-game series. The Rangers, currently sitting at 64-72, have struggled this season but managed a narrow 3-2 victory over the Athletics in their last outing. Meanwhile, the Athletics, with a 59-77 record, are also having a rough go, making this matchup a battle of underperformers in the American League West.

The Rangers are projected to start Walter Pennington, a left-handed pitcher who has posted an impressive 3.00 ERA this season, despite being ranked as the 139th best starting pitcher in MLB. Pennington’s high groundball rate of 56% could serve him well against an Athletics lineup that thrives on power, having hit 132 home runs this year, ranking 4th in MLB. However, Pennington has yet to start a game this season, which raises questions about his stamina and effectiveness.

On the other side, Mitch Spence will take the mound for the Athletics. Spence has had a mixed season with a 4.54 ERA and a 7-9 win-loss record. His last outing was solid, going five innings with just one earned run, but his overall performance has been inconsistent. With the projections suggesting Spence will allow 2.8 earned runs today, the Rangers may take advantage of his vulnerabilities, especially given their offensive ranking of 25th in MLB.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers are favored to win today, with a projected team total of 4.45 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Rangers to build on their recent success and secure another win against a struggling Athletics team that has also had its issues on offense, ranking 27th in batting average.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Mitch Spence’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (84.7% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Seth Brown stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Oakland Athletics have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Seth Brown, Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-130)
  The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.2) may lead us to conclude that Wyatt Langford has had bad variance on his side this year with his 10.8 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+10.90 Units / 54% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Wyatt Langford has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)