Athletics vs Mariners Match Preview and Winning Probability – Friday March 28, 2025

Athletics

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Seattle Mariners

On March 28, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Oakland Athletics at T-Mobile Park in what marks the second game of their series. Both teams are eager to make their mark early in the season, with the Mariners currently sitting at 1-0, while the Athletics find themselves at 0-1. The Mariners are riding high after a strong start, while the Athletics are looking to bounce back after a disappointing debut.

Projected to start for the Mariners is Luis Castillo, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 78th best starter in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Although Castillo has shown some concerning projections, particularly allowing an average of 4.3 hits and 1.3 walks, he compensates with a low earned run projection of 1.9. On the other side of the mound, the Athletics will counter with left-hander Jeffrey Springs, who is considered below average and has a troubling projection of 4.2 hits allowed per game, along with 1.6 walks.

With a game total set at a low 7.0 runs, the Mariners find themselves as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, suggesting a strong likelihood of victory. Their average implied team total stands at 3.81 runs, which presents a favorable situation against an Athletics lineup struggling to score, with a very low implied team total of just 3.19 runs.

As both teams look to establish momentum, the Mariners appear to have the edge, especially with Castillo’s above-average performance potential against a faltering Athletics offense. This matchup could prove pivotal for both teams as they navigate their early-season challenges.

Athletics Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Jeffrey Springs has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, recording an -11.2 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under Strikeouts
  When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Luis Castillo in the 79th percentile among all starters in the game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Sacramento’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games at home (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+120)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 79 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (+145/-190)
  Jeffrey Springs has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last 3 away games (+3.05 Units / 80% ROI)