Athletics vs Astros Picks and Betting Odds – 9/12/2024

Oakland Athletics

@

Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on September 12, 2024, they find themselves in a critical matchup within the American League West. Houston, currently holding a record of 77-68, looks to capitalize on their strong season against an Athletics team struggling at 64-82. While the Astros are vying for playoff positioning, Oakland’s hopes have dimmed significantly.

In their most recent game, the Astros fell short against the Athletics, who managed a surprising victory. With the series tied at one game apiece, both teams are eager to secure a win. The Astros are projected to start Framber Valdez, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 11th overall in MLB Power Rankings, boasting a solid 14-6 record and an impressive 2.97 ERA. Valdez’s ability to induce ground balls (61% GB%) should serve him well against the Athletics, who have exhibited significant power this season with 182 home runs, ranking 5th in the league.

Conversely, the Athletics will counter with Mitch Spence, a right-handed pitcher with a 7-9 record and a 4.42 ERA. While Spence has struggled, his xERA of 3.86 indicates some bad luck, suggesting he could improve. However, Spence’s low strikeout rate (20.0 K%) could be problematic against an Astros lineup that ranks 4th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

The Astros boast the 8th best offense overall, along with a stellar 3rd ranking in batting average. Their recent offensive surge is led by Jose Altuve, who has performed exceptionally well over the last week. Betting lines currently favor the Astros as significant favorites, reflecting their strong form and the favorable pitching matchup. With the Game Total set at an average 8.0 runs, it seems likely that Houston will look to assert their dominance in this pivotal matchup.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mitch Spence is expected to rack up an average of 3.7 strikeouts in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Batters such as Brent Rooker with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez will benefit from squaring off against 7 hitters in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 137 games (+13.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+230)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 52 games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Lawrence Butler has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 27% ROI)