Astros vs Rockies Match Preview and Winning Probability – Wednesday July 02, 2025

Houston Astros

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Houston Astros on July 2, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup, especially after the Astros edged out the Rockies 6-5 in a thrilling contest yesterday. The Rockies are struggling this season, holding a dismal record of 19-66, while the Astros are enjoying a strong campaign at 51-34.

On the mound, the Rockies will send out Austin Gomber, who has had a tough year with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 6.14. Gomber’s recent form has been inconsistent, and he projects to struggle against a potent Astros lineup. His low strikeout rate of 7.9 K% could be a significant disadvantage, especially against an Astros offense that ranks 5th in MLB for fewest strikeouts.

Conversely, Hunter Brown will take the hill for Houston. Brown has been exceptional this season, boasting an 8-3 record and a stellar 1.74 ERA. His high strikeout rate of 32.1 K% suggests that he could take advantage of the Rockies’ high-strikeout offense, which leads MLB in strikeouts. The projections indicate that Brown is likely to pitch around 5.5 innings today, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 25th in MLB, indicating significant struggles at the plate. Their best hitter has a solid batting average of .290 but has not been enough to lift the team. In contrast, the Astros’ best hitter has been performing well, with a .818 OPS and contributing significantly to the team’s offensive output.

Given the stark contrast in pitching prowess and overall team performance, the Astros appear poised to capitalize on their strengths against a struggling Rockies squad. With a high implied team total of 6.74 runs, the Astros are expected to dominate once again.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-290)
  Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #7 HR venue among all major league parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Isaac Paredes has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 84.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #29 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Austin Gomber has utilized his change-up 10.7% more often this season (31.2%) than he did last season (20.5%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  When assessing his overall offensive skill, Tyler Freeman ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+10.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)