Astros vs Red Sox Betting Line and Odds – August 10, 2024

Houston Astros

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on August 10, 2024, in a matchup of two teams having above-average seasons. As of now, the Red Sox hold a record of 61-53, while the Astros are slightly behind at 60-55. Both teams are looking to improve their standings and keep pace in the competitive American League.

In their last game, the Red Sox fell to the Astros, a defeat that highlights the importance of this series. The Red Sox are projected to start Josh Winckowski, who has had an average season with a 3.44 ERA and a 2-1 record, but his xFIP of 4.49 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. Winckowski’s ability to handle the Astros’ low-strikeout offense could be crucial since he is not known for generating many strikeouts himself.

On the other side, the Astros will send Spencer Arrighetti to the mound. He has struggled this season with a 5.33 ERA and a 4.21 xFIP, indicating he could improve if some luck turns in his favor. Arrighetti’s high-strikeout rate may play to his advantage against a Red Sox offense that has struck out frequently this season.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Red Sox are expected to score an impressive 5.43 runs, benefiting from an offense that ranks 2nd in the league. Meanwhile, the Astros are projected to score 5.20 runs, bolstered by their own strong hitting lineup, which sits 2nd in batting average. Given the team’s overall form and the projections, the Red Sox may have the edge in this pivotal contest as they look to rebound from their recent loss.

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  With 7 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Spencer Arrighetti encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 86.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 80.8-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)
  The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Houston Astros.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Josh Winckowski – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Grading out in the 23rd percentile, Josh Winckowski has recorded a 16.8% K% this year.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Rafael Devers has had some very good luck this year. His .400 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .358.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+14.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)