Astros vs Rangers Betting Guide and Expert Picks May 15th, 2025

Houston Astros

@

Texas Rangers

On May 15, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host their division rivals, the Houston Astros, in the first game of a critical series. Currently, the Rangers sit at 23-21, while the Astros are close behind with a record of 22-20. Both teams are having above-average seasons, but neither is firmly in contention for the division title. The Rangers are looking to build on their recent momentum, having won their last game 8-3, while the Astros also come off a victory, edging out their opponent 4-3.

The matchup on the mound features elite right-handed pitchers Jacob deGrom for the Rangers and Hunter Brown for the Astros. DeGrom, ranked 12th in MLB Power Rankings, has a solid 3-1 record this season with an impressive 2.72 ERA. However, projections indicate he may be in for a tougher outing today, as he is expected to allow 1.9 earned runs and 4.4 hits over an average of 5.8 innings pitched. DeGrom’s high strikeout rate of 27.2% could be challenged by a low-strikeout Astros lineup, potentially limiting his effectiveness.

On the other hand, Brown, ranked 13th, boasts a remarkable 6-1 record and a minuscule 1.48 ERA. His projections suggest he will allow 2.4 earned runs and 4.9 hits over 5.7 innings. With both pitchers performing at a high level, the game total is set low at 6.5 runs, reflecting the expectations of a tightly contested battle.

While the Rangers’ offense ranks 24th in MLB, their best hitter has been on fire lately, showcasing a .375 batting average over the past week. Conversely, the Astros have a more balanced attack, ranking 13th overall but struggling with power, sitting 22nd in home runs.

Betting markets have set the Rangers’ moneyline at -130, indicating a close matchup, but the low implied team total of 3.40 runs suggests skepticism about their scoring ability against Brown. As these two teams clash, the outcome may hinge on which pitcher can outperform their projections and lead their team to victory.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all SPs, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 96.3 mph ranks in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Mauricio Dubon’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (1.9°) is quite a bit lower than his 7.3° figure last year.
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
• The Houston Astros (20.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Given that groundball batters have a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Jacob deGrom and his 38.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in this game being matched up with 3 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Josh Jung has been hot of late, bashing 4 home runs over the past week.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.40 Units / 46% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games (+5.37 Units / 16% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)