Astros vs Orioles Picks and Betting Odds – 8/22/2025

Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Houston Astros on August 22, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, they find themselves in a challenging position. With a record of 59-68, Baltimore is having a below-average season, while Houston holds a record of 70-58, showcasing a more competitive campaign. The Orioles dropped the first game in this series, which adds a layer of pressure as they aim to bounce back.

Cade Povich, projected to start for the Orioles, has struggled this year with a 2-6 record and an ERA of 4.98. While he ranks as the 107th best starting pitcher in MLB, his underlying metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky. The projections estimate he will pitch around 5.1 innings and allow approximately 2.7 earned runs, though he has concerns with walks and hits allowed, which could be pivotal against Houston’s offense.

On the other hand, Lance McCullers Jr. takes the mound for the Astros, bringing a 2-4 record and a troubling ERA of 6.90. Despite his struggles, the projections indicate he might improve, as his xFIP suggests his performances could be turning the corner. He also projects to pitch 5.1 innings while allowing about 2.8 earned runs.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 21st in the league, while the Astros are positioned 14th, making this matchup intriguing. Baltimore’s best hitter has shown some form recently, batting .316 over the last week with two home runs. However, against a pitcher like McCullers Jr., who has a high walk rate, the Orioles may find it challenging to capitalize on his control issues.

With a game total set at 9.5 runs and both teams sharing a moneyline of -110, this game is expected to be closely contested, making it an exciting matchup for fans and bettors alike.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Lance McCullers Jr.’s 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 19th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Mauricio Dubon’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 85-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 81.1-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In today’s matchup, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.2% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cade Povich to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (13th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In terms of his home runs, Ryan Mountcastle has had bad variance on his side this year. His 9.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Compared to their .321 overall projected rate, the .310 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Baltimore Orioles projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+13.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 125 games (+15.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.45 Units / 72% ROI)