Astros vs Mariners Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Wednesday April 9, 2025

Houston Astros

@

Seattle Mariners

On April 9, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park for the third game in their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Mariners sitting at 4-7 and the Astros not far behind at 4-6. Despite the rocky start, the Astros have been able to secure a win in their previous matchup, which adds a layer of intensity to this game.

The Mariners are projected to start Luis Castillo, who has had a rough beginning to his season with an ERA of 9.00, ranking him as the 259th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, Castillo’s xFIP of 5.79 suggests he might have been a bit unlucky and could show improvement. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs while striking out 4.2 batters, which is below average.

In contrast, the Astros will send Hunter Brown to the mound, and he’s been more effective this season with a solid 3.00 ERA and an impressive strikeout rate of 6.6 batters per game. Brown, ranked 23rd among MLB starters, has been a consistent performer, though projections indicate he could allow more hits and walks than ideal.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 19th in MLB, while the Astros are struggling even more at 27th. The Mariners do boast some power, ranking 9th in home runs this season, while the Astros’ lineup has faced challenges, particularly in batting average and on-base percentage.

The Mariners’ current moneyline is set at +110, suggesting they are slightly underappreciated given their opportunities for improvement and the closer-than-expected matchup. With a game total of just 7.5 runs, expect a tight contest as both teams seek to turn around their early-season fortunes.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Because flyball hitters have a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Hunter Brown and his 50.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today’s game going up against 0 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, batters like Victor Caratini who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Luis Castillo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Houston Astros have been the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing bats in this matchup… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 98 games (+11.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 150 games (+17.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)