Astros vs Blue Jays Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 9/10/2025

Houston Astros

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Houston Astros on September 10, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams vying for playoff positioning. Toronto holds a solid 83-61 record this season, showcasing their status as one of the top teams in the American League. Meanwhile, Houston, with a record of 78-67, is also in the hunt, albeit in a more precarious position. In yesterday’s matchup, Toronto bested Houston, adding to their momentum as they look to secure a series win.

As the Blue Jays take the field at Rogers Centre, they’ll rely on Jose Berrios as their starting pitcher. Berrios has had a mixed season, with a 9-5 record and a 4.02 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he may be somewhat over-performing, indicated by his 4.72 xERA. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs, though he may struggle with his strikeout numbers against Houston’s lineup.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with Jason Alexander, who has also faced challenges this season. While he sports a decent 4-1 record, his 4.68 ERA reflects various struggles, and projections indicate he might allow 3.2 earned runs across 5.2 innings. His low strikeout rate will be tested against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 2nd overall in MLB and leads in team batting average.

With the Blue Jays boasting the 6th best bullpen and facing one of the weakest starting pitchers in Alexander, they seem to have an edge in this matchup. Given the projections and current form, Toronto’s offense is primed to capitalize, making them a favorable bet for this game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Jason Alexander has recorded 16.9 outs per GS this year, placing in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Toronto’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jeremy Pena, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Houston Astros have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his arsenal this season and has thrown it 26.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 130 games (+23.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+17.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Addison Barger has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 55% ROI)