Angels vs Twins Picks and Odds – April 26, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins

On April 26, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Los Angeles Angels at Target Field for the second game of their series. The Twins, currently struggling with a 10-16 record, are coming off an impressive 11-4 victory against the Angels the day before, which could provide a much-needed boost to their confidence. In contrast, the Angels sit at 12-13, reflecting a below-average start to their season.

The matchup features Simeon Woods Richard for the Twins, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rocky season with a 1-2 record and a 4.74 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he might have been a bit unlucky, as his 4.14 SIERA indicates he could improve moving forward. Woods Richard’s high flyball rate (50% FB%) could be a concern against the Angels’ powerful offense, which ranks 4th in MLB with 38 home runs this season.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher with a solid 3.38 ERA and an average performance overall. Kikuchi has struggled with his win-loss record at 0-3, but his last outing on April 20 was strong, where he pitched 5 innings without allowing any earned runs.

While the Twins’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB, their best hitter has shown recent form, posting a 1.303 OPS over the past week. The Angels, despite their 24th rank in overall offense, have a potent home run threat that could exploit Woods Richard’s flyball tendencies.

Betting markets have set the Twins’ moneyline at -135, indicating they are favored to win, though the Angels, with their power, could pull off an upset. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting an expectation of a competitive matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yusei Kikuchi has utilized his non-fastballs 8.2% more often this year (61.3%) than he did last year (53.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Luis Rengifo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Simeon Woods Richardson was on point in his previous outing and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Harrison Bader has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph dropping to 83.2-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Luis Rengifo has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)