Angels vs Rays Picks and Odds – April 10, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the 2025 season unfolds, the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves struggling at 5-6, while the Los Angeles Angels are riding high with a 7-4 record. The Rays sit in a below-average position in the standings, raising questions about their ability to contend. Conversely, the Angels have enjoyed a strong start, showing off their offensive prowess and solid team dynamics.

In their last outing, the Rays edged out the Angels with a narrow 5-4 victory, which could provide them with a much-needed morale boost as they continue this three-game series at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers, Zack Littell for the Rays and Jose Soriano for the Angels, both looking to find their rhythm after shaky performances in their previous starts.

Zack Littell has been plagued by inconsistency this season, sporting a 0-2 record and an above-average ERA of 4.15. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a turnaround, with a 3.57 xFIP indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. On the other hand, Jose Soriano has shown promise with a good ERA of 3.65 and a solid xFIP of 2.72, even though he too struggled in his last start, giving up 5 earned runs in just 5 innings.

The Rays’ offense ranks 13th overall, showing average abilities, but they excel in batting average, ranking 9th. They may leverage their hitting against Soriano, who is known for his high walk rate, creating opportunities for runs. Meanwhile, the Angels’ offense ranks 5th in home runs, which could pose a significant threat if they find their power against Littell.

As the Rays come into this game with a moneyline of -120, the projections suggest they could have an edge, especially given their recent win over the Angels. This matchup promises to be a competitive affair, with both teams looking to solidify their standings early in the season.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Jose Soriano’s sinker percentage has increased by 10.8% from last season to this one (46.9% to 57.7%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Luis Rengifo is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Out of all starters, Zack Littell’s fastball spin rate of 2023.1 rpm is in the 9th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Brandon Lowe has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.7-mph average to last year’s 89.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 82 away games (+8.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Kyren Paris – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1700)
  Kyren Paris has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+36.00 Units / 600% ROI)