Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Reds vs Cubs Match Preview – August 05, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds on August 5, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup as both teams continue their battle within the National League Central. After a tight contest yesterday, where the Cubs fell to the Reds 3-2, they’ll be looking to even the series at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are enjoying a solid season with a 65-47 record, ranking 3rd in MLB in offensive performance, including 3rd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Reds, with a record of 59-54, have had a decent but somewhat underwhelming season.

On the mound, Shota Imanaga is projected to start for the Cubs. Despite ranking 115th among MLB pitchers, Imanaga has been effective, sporting a 3.25 ERA this year. However, his xFIP of 4.71 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. He is coming off an uneventful start, where he allowed 3 earned runs while striking out 8 batters over 5 innings on July 30. Imanaga’s projected performance indicates he may allow 2.3 earned runs and strike out about 5.5 batters today.

For the Reds, Zack Littell will take the mound. With a 3.58 ERA, Littell has been steady but is considered a below-average pitcher according to the projections. He’s coming off a strong outing where he tossed 5 shutout innings, striking out 4 batters. However, facing a powerful Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs, Littell may find it challenging.

The Cubs are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -185, reflecting their high implied team total of 4.28 runs for this game. In contrast, the Reds are underdogs at +160 with a projected team total of just 3.22 runs. Given their strong offensive ranking and home advantage, the Cubs appear well-positioned to bounce back and level the series.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Zack Littell has gone to his slider 5.2% less often this year (34.7%) than he did last year (39.9%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  This season, Miguel Andujar has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 88.3 mph compared to last year’s 84.1 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.3° mark is among the highest in baseball this year (#3 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Shota Imanaga’s 90.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.5-mph decline from last year’s 91.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under Total Bases
  Despite posting a .365 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carson Kelly has been lucky given the .040 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 78 games (+20.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 39% ROI)