Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
(-120/+100)-185
As the New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on September 28, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Yankees currently sit at 93-68, enjoying a strong season and ranking as the 1st best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Orioles, with a record of 75-86, find themselves in a disappointing position, ranked 20th in offensive performance.
In their most recent outing, the Yankees showcased their dominance, winning decisively against the Orioles. This matchup marks the third game in their series, heightening the stakes for both teams. The Yankees will start Luis Gil, who has a solid 4-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.29. However, his 5.64 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far this season. Gil’s low strikeout rate of 17.3% could be a concern, especially facing an Orioles offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.
On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Kyle Bradish, who has been a standout with a 2.25 ERA in his 5 starts. Bradish’s impressive 35.8% strikeout rate presents a challenge for a Yankees lineup that also strikes out frequently, ranking 3rd in that category.
The Yankees’ offense is bolstered by their recent performances, with their best hitter racking up 8 hits and 4 home runs over the past week. In contrast, the Orioles’ best hitter has a respectable .429 batting average but lacks the same power production.
With the Yankees favored at -185 and a high implied team total of 4.85 runs, they appear poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their successful campaign against a struggling Orioles squad.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Kyle Bradish’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this year (94.1 mph) below where it was last season (95.4 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Dylan Beavers, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineLuis Gil is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in the majors in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under HitsPaul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Today, Anthony Volpe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.