Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Giants vs Rockies Match Preview – September 02, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Colorado Rockies

On September 2, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field for the second game of their series. The Rockies currently sit at the bottom of the National League West with a dismal record of 39-99, while the Giants are hovering around .500 at 69-69. The Rockies have been struggling mightily this season and are unlikely to contend for a Wild Card spot.

In their last game, San Francisco secured a win against Colorado, further solidifying their position over the struggling Rockies. The Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound, who has enjoyed a solid season with a 12-9 record and an impressive 3.16 ERA. Webb is recognized as one of the elite pitchers in the league, ranking 7th among starting pitchers. In contrast, the Rockies will counter with Kyle Freeland, who has faced significant challenges, posting a 3-13 record and a troubling 5.28 ERA.

Freeland has been somewhat unlucky this year, as indicated by his 4.34 xFIP, suggesting he could perform better than his surface numbers indicate. However, he projects to work only 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 3.4 earned runs, which does not bode well against a Giants lineup that, despite its 24th ranking in offense, features players who can capitalize on pitching mistakes.

Betting odds favor the Giants with a moneyline of -220 and a high implied team total of 6.20 runs, while the Rockies, at +185, carry a high implied team total of 4.30 runs. With Webb’s strikeout ability against a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts, the Giants appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. Meanwhile, Colorado’s poor offensive ranks highlight the uphill battle they face.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Logan Webb’s change-up rate has decreased by 7.1% from last season to this one (30.9% to 23.8%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.8) implies that Patrick Bailey has experienced some negative variance this year with his 3.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the San Francisco Giants will score 6.34 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams playing today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starters, Kyle Freeland’s fastball velocity of 91 mph ranks in the 16th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Colorado Rockies have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle, Ryan Ritter).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 127 games (+11.17 Units / 7% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 away games (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+260/-370)
  Willy Adames has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+11.60 Units / 129% ROI)