Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Rangers vs Yankees – Friday August 09, 2024

Texas Rangers

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New York Yankees

On August 10, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Texas Rangers in the second game of a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium. This matchup is crucial for the Yankees, who are currently positioned well in the standings with a record of 68-48, while the Rangers sit at 54-61, struggling through a below-average season. The Yankees are coming off a disappointing loss to the Los Angeles Angels on August 8, falling 9-4, but they remain a strong contender in the American League.

Projected to start for the Yankees is Gerrit Cole, who, despite a season ERA of 5.09, is ranked 36th among MLB starting pitchers and has shown potential for improvement with a xFIP of 4.33. In his last outing on August 4, Cole pitched effectively over 6 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs. He faces Cody Bradford of the Rangers, who holds a solid 3.96 ERA but has pitched just 4 games this season. Bradford’s previous start was abbreviated, lasting only 4 innings with 3 earned runs.

The Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, particularly dangerous with their power, ranking 2nd in home runs. Their best hitter, Aaron Judge, continues to excel, leading the lineup with a remarkable .321 batting average and 41 home runs this season. Conversely, the Rangers’ offense ranks a dismal 25th in MLB, struggling to generate consistent threats.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are favorites with a projected team total of 5.57 runs for this game, suggesting they will capitalize on Bradford’s tendency to allow fly balls. Given the Yankees’ offensive firepower and Cole’s potential bounce-back, this matchup leans heavily in favor of New York as they look to rebound from their recent loss.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Cody Bradford – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cody Bradford to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 74 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under Hits
  Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (97% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under Total Bases
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Gerrit Cole in the 92nd percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Juan Soto has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.7-mph to 98.5-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Yankees have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carlos Narvaez, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 71 games (+20.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)