Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Nationals vs Mets – (Thursday July 11, 2024

Washington Nationals

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New York Mets

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals are set to face off on July 11, 2024, at Citi Field for the third game in their series. This National League East matchup pits the Mets, who hold a 46-45 record, against the Nationals, who are struggling at 42-51. Both teams are looking to gain ground, with the Mets having an average season and the Nationals performing below expectations.

David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets, bringing his 3-0 record and 3.58 ERA into the game. Despite these solid numbers, Peterson’s 4.56 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate and could regress. Peterson has been effective in limiting earned runs, projecting to allow just 2.1 on average today. However, his low strikeout rate (16.3%) against a Nationals lineup that ranks 6th in least strikeouts could pose a challenge. Peterson’s high groundball rate (54%) may neutralize Washington’s lack of power, as the Nationals rank 29th in home runs.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore will start for the Nationals. With a 6-7 record and a 3.83 ERA, Gore has been solid but unlucky, as indicated by his 3.06 FIP. He projects to allow 2.8 earned runs and strike out 6.0 batters on average today, which is good. However, Gore’s control issues could be problematic, as he projects to allow 1.8 walks on average.

The Mets’ offense, ranked 9th overall and 4th in home runs, should provide a stiff test for Gore. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ offense ranks 24th overall but does excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd. This could be an area to exploit against a Mets bullpen that ranks 20th in the league.

With the Mets favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they look to have the edge in this matchup. The Nationals, as +120 underdogs, will need a strong performance from Gore and their offense to pull off an upset.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  MacKenzie Gore has gone to his change-up 6.5% more often this year (9.4%) than he did last season (2.9%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Extreme groundball bats like Luis Garcia generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Juan Yepez pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  David Peterson’s 2144-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 22nd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Over the past week, J.D. Martinez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-145)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 88 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 48 away games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)