Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Cubs vs Pirates – Tuesday September 16, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs on September 16, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting seasons. The Pirates stand at 65-86, struggling significantly, while the Cubs boast a much stronger record of 86-64, positioning them well in the National League Central. In their last meeting, the Cubs shut out the Pirates 4-0, a result that highlights the disparity between the two clubs this year.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Paul Skenes, who is having an outstanding season with a 1.92 ERA and a 10-9 win/loss record. Skenes, ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, has the potential to dominate, although his peripherals suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this year. He is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs while striking out 6.1 batters per outing. However, his tendency to give up 4.6 hits and 1.4 walks could be a concern against a patient Cubs lineup that ranks 5th in walks.

Cade Horton will take the hill for the Cubs. While he has a solid 2.70 ERA and a 10-4 record, he is regarded as an average pitcher. Horton projects to pitch 4.6 innings with 2.3 earned runs allowed on average, which could put extra pressure on the Cubs’ bullpen.

Offensively, the Cubs are 9th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup, while the Pirates’ offense ranks dead last at 30th. This gap could be pivotal, especially since the projections indicate low team totals for both clubs, with the Pirates at 3.70 runs and the Cubs at 3.30 runs. Given the current form of both teams and Skenes’s elite status, the Pirates may find themselves in a better position than the odds suggest, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Cade Horton’s high usage percentage of his fastball (55.5% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Michael Busch has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• As a team, Chicago Cubs bats have shined when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 2nd-best in the league.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Paul Skenes’s 97.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.4-mph decline from last year’s 98.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Despite posting a .301 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck given the .051 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #24 offense in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 143 games (+25.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 141 games (+13.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  Carson Kelly has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.90 Units / 165% ROI)