Analyze the D-Backs vs Dodgers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, August 31, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 31, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League West matchup. The Dodgers currently sit at 77-59, showcasing a solid season, while the Diamondbacks hold a record of 68-69, hovering around average. In their last contest, the Dodgers fell to the Diamondbacks 6-1, a disappointing outcome that adds pressure heading into this pivotal series.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, bringing an elite status as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. This season, Yamamoto has posted a commendable 2.90 ERA over 25 starts, although his 3.42 SIERA suggests he might be due for some regression. He pitched effectively in his last outing, allowing just two earned runs over six innings, and he projects to average 5.8 innings today with a solid 2.2 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is expected to start for the Diamondbacks. With a 5.24 ERA, his performance has been less than stellar this season, and he struggled significantly in his last game, allowing six earned runs in just three innings. Projections indicate that he may allow 3.7 earned runs today, which could prove detrimental against a Dodgers offense ranked 3rd overall in MLB, known for their power with the 2nd most home runs.

With the Dodgers favored at -220, the projections suggest they could muster a high team total of 5.34 runs, reflecting their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, despite their offensive strengths, are projected for just 3.66 runs today. Given the current forms of both pitchers and the recent performance of the teams, this matchup appears to heavily favor the Dodgers, who will be looking to bounce back after their recent defeat.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+200)
  Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Corbin Carroll has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season’s 89.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Andy Pages is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .332 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .343 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+185)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 65 of their last 122 games (+16.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Alex Freeland – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Alex Freeland has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)