Analyze the Cubs vs Reds Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, September 20, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

On September 20, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in a pivotal National League Central matchup. The Cubs come into this series game with a record of 88-66, enjoying a solid season, while the Reds stand at 78-76, having an average year. The last time these teams met, the Reds were outperformed, but they have the home-field advantage in this crucial third game of the series.

The projections suggest that Zack Littell, with a 9-8 record and a respectable 3.86 ERA, is set to face Javier Assad, who has struggled somewhat this season with a 4.23 ERA. Littell’s underlying metrics indicate he’s been fortunate this season, and he’ll need to avoid the mistakes that have plagued him, particularly as he projects to allow an average of 3.1 earned runs today. Conversely, Assad has only started five games this year, and while he has a decent win-loss record, he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced statistics.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 10th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup that has been productive with a strong home run rate—8th overall in that category. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense ranks 19th in MLB, struggling particularly with power as they sit at 24th in home runs. This disparity could prove critical, especially with both teams projected to score 4.5 runs.

Bettors may find the Reds’ strong bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, can provide a late-game edge, but they’ll need Littell to step up against a high-walk Cubs offense. With the stakes high and both teams eyeing a crucial win, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle as the postseason approaches.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Reese McGuire – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Reese McGuire has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Zack Littell has tallied 17.7 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the weak infield defense of Chicago (#29-worst on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 120 games (+26.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 151 games (+18.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+360/-530)
  Will Benson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+15.50 Units / 194% ROI)