Analyze the Athletics vs Royals Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Friday, June 13, 2025

Athletics

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Kansas City Royals

On June 13, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Oakland Athletics at Kauffman Stadium in the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Royals sitting at 34-35 and the Athletics at 26-44. The Royals are projected to start Michael Wacha, who has had a solid year with a 3.01 ERA, while the Athletics will counter with Luis Severino, whose 4.77 ERA is below average.

Wacha has been effective, ranking as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stats Power Rankings, which indicates he is performing above average. However, his 4.29 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season. On the other hand, Severino has struggled, with a 1-6 record and a low strikeout rate of 16.6 K%. This matchup may favor the Royals, as they face a pitcher who has had difficulty generating strikeouts against a low-strikeout offense, which ranks 3rd least in the league.

While the Royals’ offense ranks a disappointing 26th overall, they do have a strong batting average, sitting at 10th in the league. However, they struggle significantly with power, ranking dead last in home runs. The Athletics, despite their poor record, boast a much better offensive ranking, coming in at 7th overall, with a solid batting average and home run total.

With the Royals favored at -155, the projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.39 runs. Given their recent offensive performance and the matchup against Severino, the Royals could capitalize on their home-field advantage and look to improve their record against an Athletics team that has consistently struggled this season.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all SPs, Luis Severino’s fastball velocity of 95.2 mph grades out in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Max Muncy is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Athletics projected offense today (.309 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .321 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 97.4-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals hitters collectively rank 28th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 6.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 62 games (+26.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)