Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Rays vs Tigers – July 7th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers host the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park on July 7, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Detroit has been enjoying a strong season, currently sitting with a record of 57-34, while Tampa Bay, with a 49-41 record, is also faring reasonably well. In their last outings, the Tigers took a decisive win over the Chicago White Sox with a score of 7-2, while the Rays outlasted the Toronto Blue Jays, ending with a 7-5 victory.

On the mound, Keider Montero is projected to start for the Tigers. Although Montero’s ERA sits at a respectable 4.02, his advanced metrics reveal potential struggles ahead, as his xFIP stands at 4.64, suggesting he might have benefitted from some favorable luck this season. In contrast, Shane Baz of the Rays has been more consistent, with an ERA of 4.33 and a superior xFIP of 3.80, which hints that he may have faced challenges that could improve with time.

When it comes to offensive power, the Tigers’ offense ranks 6th in MLB, boasting a solid batting average of .264, while they are also 8th in home runs. Tampa Bay counters with a 10th overall ranking, highlighted by a striking 3rd place in batting average at .276, making this matchup intriguing.

Despite the close odds, projections favor the Tigers slightly, hinting at home-field advantage and their overall hitting prowess. Bettors should take note of the Tigers’ strong offensive capabilities as they seek to capitalize on their excellent season against a competently ranked opponent. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, signifying expectations for a competitive effort from both squads.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Shane Baz has tallied 17.2 outs per start this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jonathan Aranda has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Keider Montero’s sinker utilization has increased by 13.8% from last year to this one (7.7% to 21.5%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Typically, hitters like Javier Baez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shane Baz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Parker Meadows hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 83 games (+14.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 away games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Zach McKinstry has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+15.00 Units / 214% ROI)