Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Rays vs Tigers – July 7th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on July 7, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, particularly for the Tigers, who boast a strong 57-34 record this season. The Rays, with a record of 49-41, remain competitive but are currently sitting in a more precarious position. Notably, Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound for the Tigers, while the Rays will counter with Shane Baz.

Flaherty, ranked as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has had a rocky season. His 5-9 record and an ERA of 4.84 highlight a season marred by some bad luck, as indicated by his 3.69 xFIP, suggesting he may outperform his numbers going forward. Flaherty is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, but he does show promise with 6.0 projected strikeouts.

On the other hand, Shane Baz ranks 62nd in MLB, with a more favorable 8-3 record and a decent ERA of 4.33. The projections indicate that Baz may also improve, as his 3.80 xFIP is lower than his ERA. His average performance metrics suggest he will pitch slightly fewer innings than Flaherty but may allow fewer earned runs.

Offensively, the Tigers are ranked 6th in MLB, with a solid power display, while the Rays stand 10th, boasting an impressive 3rd in batting average. The Tigers have struggled on the base paths, ranking dead last in stolen bases, which could be a crucial factor against the Rays, who lead the league in that category.

With a high game total of 9.0 runs and moneylines suggesting a tight matchup, this game promises to deliver excitement as both teams vie for crucial victories in their respective campaigns.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Shane Baz has tallied 17.2 outs per start this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jonathan Aranda has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Jack Flaherty has utilized his slider 6.2% less often this year (22.8%) than he did last year (29%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Spencer Torkelson are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Parker Meadows hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 83 games (+14.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 away games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)