Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Braves vs D-Backs – April 3rd, 2026

Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Grant Holmes’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (66.7% since the start of last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  As it relates to his home runs, Austin Riley has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His 20.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starters, Eduardo Rodriguez’s fastball velocity of 91.4 mph ranks in the 17th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Corbin Carroll’s 14.8% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) grades out in the 91st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 61 games at home (+15.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 41 away games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 63% ROI)