Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-150
As the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in the third game of their series on October 28, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, fans can expect a battle between two top-tier offenses. The Yankees, boasting the 3rd-best offensive unit this season, have generated much of their firepower from their 2nd-ranked home run ability. On the other side, the Dodgers, who hold the accolade for the best offense in MLB this season, have been lethal with the long ball, ranking 1st in home runs.
The pitching matchup features Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees and Walker Buehler for the Dodgers, both right-handers with contrasting seasons. Schmidt, with a solid 2.85 ERA, ranks as the 53rd-best pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, with a high-flyball approach and facing the Dodgers’ potent lineup, Schmidt may need to navigate carefully to avoid turning flyballs into home runs.
Buehler, despite a lackluster 5.38 ERA, shows potential for improvement with his xFIP suggesting he’s been somewhat unlucky this year. The projection system, THE BAT X, indicates he’ll need to improve his control, as both pitchers anticipate a similar workload of around four innings.
The Yankees enter as favorites with a moneyline of -145, suggesting a 57% implied win probability. The offensive clash will play a significant role as the Dodgers aim to capitalize on Schmidt’s flyball tendencies.
Both bullpens rank among the elite, with the Dodgers at 2nd and the Yankees at 4th in Power Rankings, indicating a potentially tight game if the offenses don’t take early leads. With the series on the line, this matchup features compelling narratives and showcases the talents of two of the league’s premier teams.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+125)The Los Angeles Dodgers infield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+125)The best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
New York Yankees Insights
- Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Clarke Schmidt is projected to throw 74 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- New York Yankees – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 118 games (+15.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 68 games (+24.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)Mookie Betts has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+20.10 Units / 402% ROI)