Yankees vs Dodgers Bets and Betting Trends – 10/26/24

New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are set for an intriguing interleague clash on October 26, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. This matchup features two of the top offenses in baseball, with the Dodgers boasting the 1st-ranked offense and the Yankees close behind at 3rd. Both teams are well-positioned for postseason play, adding significance to this contest. The Dodgers enter this game following a win against the Yankees in the series opener, while the Yankees look to bounce back.

On the mound, the Dodgers will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a right-hander ranked as the 12th-best pitcher in baseball according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Yamamoto sports an impressive 3.00 ERA this season, although his projected performance today is mixed. He is expected to allow 2.0 earned runs, which is favorable, but his projected 4.6 innings pitched and 4.1 hits allowed are less encouraging. However, his high-groundball rate could neutralize the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in home runs.

The Yankees will counter with left-hander Carlos Rodon, who has been solid this season with a 3.96 ERA. However, Rodon faces a tough challenge against the Dodgers’ top-ranked home run-hitting lineup. His high-flyball tendency could play into Los Angeles’s strength, potentially leading to a long day on the mound. Rodon’s projections suggest he’ll allow 2.8 earned runs over 4.4 innings, which could give the Dodgers an edge.

The Dodgers are favored with a -140 moneyline, giving them a 56% implied win probability. Given their offensive firepower and Yamamoto’s potential to suppress the Yankees’ strengths, Los Angeles seems poised to secure another victory in this series. Meanwhile, the Yankees will need a strong performance from Rodon and timely hitting to overcome the odds and even the series.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the 92nd percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of New York (#2-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 105 games (+25.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 125 games (+18.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Miguel Rojas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games (+15.50 Units / 129% ROI)