Cleveland Guardians
New York Yankees
(+105/-125)-170
The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians are set to clash in Game 1 of their American League League Championship Series matchup on October 14, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. With the Yankees holding the 3rd-best offense in MLB, they’ll look to leverage their home-field advantage against the Guardians, who are ranked 17th in offense. This series opener promises to be a captivating duel between two teams with different strengths.
On the mound, the Yankees will start left-hander Carlos Rodon, who has been a reliable presence with a 16-9 record and a 3.96 ERA. Despite being ranked 100th among MLB pitchers, Rodon is projected to navigate a Guardians lineup that is adept at avoiding strikeouts, ranked 6th in least strikeouts. Rodon’s high-strikeout tendencies may face a challenge against this contact-oriented offense. However, his ability to keep earned runs to a minimum could tilt the scales in New York’s favor.
The Guardians counter with right-hander Alex Cobb, who boasts an impressive 2.76 ERA in limited action this season. Ranked 68th, Cobb’s high groundball rate might neutralize the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in home runs. Cobb’s control will be key against a patient Yankees lineup that draws the most walks in MLB. However, his low innings projection could expose the Guardians’ bullpen earlier than desired, despite its top ranking.
In their last outings, both teams secured victories, with the Yankees defeating the Royals 3-1 and the Guardians overcoming the Tigers 7-3. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a slight edge with a 59% win probability, suggesting the home team’s offensive prowess and bullpen depth could be decisive. With playoff implications on the line, this matchup is set to deliver high-stakes drama.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Ramirez tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-170)Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Alex Verdugo is penciled in 9th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-170)The 2nd-weakest projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 103 games (+14.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+16.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+14.50 Units / 23% ROI)