New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
(-115/-105)+130
As the American League Division Series rolls on, the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees prepare for Game 4 of their matchup on October 10, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The series is gaining intensity, with the Yankees holding the upper hand after a narrow 3-2 victory over the Royals in their last outing. The Yankees’ high-powered offense, ranked 3rd in MLB, continues to showcase its might, boasting the best home run tally in the league. Meanwhile, the Royals will need to capitalize on their 14th-ranked offense to stay competitive, building on their 10th-best team batting average.
Kansas City will look to Michael Wacha to halt the Yankees’ momentum. Ranked 72nd among MLB starters and boasting a solid 3.35 ERA, Wacha has been a reliable presence on the mound. However, his xFIP of 4.14 suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Wacha’s potential vulnerability is his tendency to allow flyballs, which could be a concern against the potent Yankees lineup. Despite this, his low walk rate might mitigate some of the Yankees’ patience at the plate.
On the flip side, New York’s Gerrit Cole will take to the mound, bringing his 3.41 ERA and 30th-ranked status to the game. Cole has been effective but shows signs of luck with a 3.99 xFIP. While the projections indicate Cole might allow more hits and fewer strikeouts than desired, his ability to command the game remains evident.
With the Royals facing a +130 underdog status and a 42% implied win probability, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, presents a more optimistic 46% chance for Kansas City, indicating a potentially tighter contest. The Yankees, favored at -150, carries a projected 54% win probability. Both teams are eager to gain an edge in this crucial matchup, with high stakes and strategic depth underscoring the excitement of postseason baseball.
New York Yankees Insights
- Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gerrit Cole to throw 80 pitches in this outing (most on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
- Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+130)The Kansas City Royals projected batting order ranks as the worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 161 games (+13.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 130 games (+16.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 48 games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)