Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Phillies vs Nationals – Sunday September 29th, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

As the 2024 MLB season winds down, the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off in an intriguing National League East matchup on September 29 at Nationals Park. While the Nationals have struggled this season with a 71-90 record, they managed to edge out the Phillies 6-3 in their last meeting on September 28. Despite this recent win, the Nationals continue to find themselves out of playoff contention as the regular season concludes. Conversely, the Phillies are enjoying a strong campaign with a 94-67 record, securing their place in the postseason.

On the mound, the Nationals will start Jake Irvin, who has had a rough season, as evidenced by his 4.22 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 10-13. Irvin’s advanced Power Rankings place him at 158th out of approximately 350 starting pitchers, reflecting his struggles this year. Projected to pitch 5.2 innings, Irvin will aim to rebound after being hit hard in his previous outing, where he allowed five earned runs over four innings.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola, whose 3.52 ERA and 13-8 record indicate a more successful season. Nola ranks 43rd in the Power Rankings, highlighting his effectiveness on the mound. Despite allowing a higher number of hits and walks than usual, Nola’s recent performance was solid, pitching six innings and giving up just two earned runs.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 23rd overall, but they’re first in stolen bases, adding some unpredictability to their game. The Phillies, however, rank as the 4th best offense, buoyed by strong performances from Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Schwarber has amassed 38 home runs this season, while Castellanos boasts a remarkable .500 batting average over the past week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Phillies as favorites with a 57% projected win probability, which aligns with the current betting odds. While the Nationals have a low implied team total of 3.44 runs, bettors might find value in backing Philadelphia as they continue their push toward the postseason.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Aaron Nola has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 5.9 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under Total Bases
  Nick Castellanos has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 94.5-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia has been great at making hard contact. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (97.9 mph) ranks among the league’s best: #2 in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jake Irvin’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (41.8% compared to 35.4% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Based on Statcast data, Jacob Young is in the 0th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at .000.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Joey Gallo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 86 of their last 154 games (+7.70 Units / 4% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+16.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)