Rangers vs Angels Picks and Betting Tips – September 28th, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves out of playoff contention. The Angels have endured a dismal season with a 63-97 record, while the Rangers have fared slightly better at 76-84, though still below average. This American League West matchup is the second game of their series, with the Rangers having secured a 5-2 victory in the opener.

On the mound for the Angels is Griffin Canning, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled throughout the season, posting a 6-13 record and a 5.24 ERA. However, his 4.74 xERA suggests some potential for improvement, indicating that he may have been somewhat unlucky. Canning’s projection for this game includes 5.2 innings pitched, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 4.2 batters on average.

The Rangers will counter with left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has had a challenging year with a 5-14 record but a respectable 3.98 ERA. Heaney is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters on average.

Offensively, both teams have underperformed this season. The Angels rank 26th in offense, while the Rangers are close behind at 25th. Zach Neto has been a bright spot for the Angels, while Marcus Semien leads the Rangers’ lineup. Notably, Jack Lopez has been hot for the Angels over the last week, boasting a .471 batting average and a 1.324 OPS, while Wyatt Langford has been a standout for the Rangers with a .304 batting average and three home runs in his last six games.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Angels a 47% win probability, slightly higher than their implied 43%. With both teams looking to end their seasons on a positive note, this matchup promises to be a close contest.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.5% more often this season (48.8%) than he did last year (42.3%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Leody Taveras has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 6.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Texas Rangers batters as a group grade out 22nd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 7.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Griffin Canning’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.2-mph fall off from last season’s 94-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Kevin Pillar’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.6-mph EV last season has fallen off to 87.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Today, Kevin Pillar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.7% rate (93rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 53 games at home (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+10.90 Units / 38% ROI)