Rays vs Red Sox Betting Guide – 9/28/24

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves mired in mediocrity with average seasons. Though neither team is contending for postseason glory, the matchup between American League East rivals always carries its own intrigue.

The Red Sox, sitting at 80-80, are coming off a victory against the Rays in the series opener. On the mound for Boston will be Kutter Crawford, who has been a solid presence in their rotation. Ranked as the #74 best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, Crawford’s 4.17 ERA positions him as an above-average hurler. Despite his win/loss record of 9-15, he projects to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs, backed by a potent Boston lineup that ranks 7th best in MLB.

On the other side, the Rays enter with a 79-81 record, relying on Shane Baz to counter Boston’s offense. While Baz’s 3.07 ERA is commendable, his higher xFIP suggests a regression may be on the horizon. Nevertheless, Tampa Bay’s bullpen, rated 3rd best in MLB, could prove crucial in tight scenarios.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast the 7th best overall lineup, excelling in batting average and home runs, while the Rays lag at 27th in several key metrics. However, with Jonathan Aranda in form, the Rays will hope to leverage their speed on the bases against Boston’s average bullpen.

In terms of projections, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 54% win probability, underscoring this contest as highly competitive. While betting markets reflect a tight affair, Boston’s combination of batting prowess and an above-average starting pitcher offers a slight advantage as they aim to secure another win at Fenway Park.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Shane Baz has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -6.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Kutter Crawford has gone to his curveball 5% less often this year (7.1%) than he did last season (12.1%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Vaughn Grissom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Vaughn Grissom has suffered from bad luck this year. His .192 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .302.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.5 (+170)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 151 games (+24.06 Units / 13% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)