Understand the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Yankees Head-to-Head Insights September 27th, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to Yankee Stadium on September 27, 2024, the stakes and dynamics are quite intriguing. The Yankees, boasting a robust 93-66 record, have been dominant throughout the season, while the Pirates find themselves at 74-85, struggling to find consistency. This interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, with both teams looking to make a statement.

The Yankees have been impressive on both sides of the ball, ranking 3rd in overall offense and leading MLB in home runs. Their ace for the day, Carlos Rodon, enters the game with a solid 16-9 record and a 3.98 ERA. Despite being ranked 96th among starting pitchers, his high strikeout potential (26.6 K%) aligns well against a Pirates lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts. Rodon’s ability to exploit Pittsburgh’s weaknesses could give the Yankees a significant edge.

Conversely, the Pirates have had a challenging season offensively, ranking 28th in overall offense and 26th in home runs. Jared Jones, their projected starter, carries a 6-8 record with a 4.14 ERA. Although ranked 73rd among pitchers, Jones may face difficulties against a powerful Yankees lineup renowned for their ability to turn flyballs into homers. The projections suggest Jones might struggle, especially with his tendency to give up hits and walks.

The Yankees come in as strong favorites, with a moneyline of -175 and a projected win probability of 64% according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. With Aaron Judge on a hot streak, hitting .444 with five homers over the last week, the Yankees’ offense is primed to capitalize on any mistakes. Meanwhile, the Pirates, as underdogs, will look to defy the odds and play spoiler in this late-season clash.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jared Jones is projected to throw 79 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.8-mph EV last season has decreased to 86-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Carlos Rodon has used his non-fastballs 11.2% more often this season (50.8%) than he did last season (39.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge’s true offensive ability to be a .428, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .046 difference between that figure and his actual .474 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 106 games (+15.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under Team Total
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-265)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)