Review Betting Odds and Picks for Twins vs Giants – Friday, July 12, 2024

Minnesota Twins

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are set to host the Minnesota Twins on July 12, 2024, at Oracle Park. This interleague matchup sees the Giants, who have had a below-average season with a 45-49 record, face off against the Twins, who are having a solid year at 53-40. This is the first game in the series between these two teams.

On the mound for the Giants will be left-hander Kyle Harrison. Harrison has struggled this season, with a 4.24 ERA and a 4.79 xERA suggesting he might be due for some regression. His last start was particularly rough, as he lasted only three innings, giving up four earned runs, four hits, and four walks. Harrison’s high-flyball tendencies could be problematic against a powerful Twins lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in home runs. The Giants’ offense, meanwhile, sits in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th overall, but they lag significantly in stolen bases, ranking dead last.

Countering for the Twins will be right-hander Joe Ryan, who has been excellent this season with a 3.29 ERA. Ryan’s last start saw him go six innings, allowing three earned runs while striking out eight. He has been a consistent force, and his projections indicate he should continue to perform well, with an expected 2.4 earned runs and 6.4 strikeouts over 5.7 innings.

The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 3rd in the league by advanced metrics, will need to be sharp to support Harrison. However, the Twins boast the top bullpen in MLB, giving them a significant edge in the later innings.

Both teams enter this game with contrasting recent fortunes. The Giants are coming off a 5-3 loss to the Blue Jays on July 11, while the Twins narrowly edged out the White Sox 3-2. Despite the Giants being underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 48% chance of winning. This discrepancy suggests there might be value in betting on the Giants in this closely projected game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Joe Ryan’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.8 mph this season (93.4 mph) over where it was last season (91.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected batting order today (.311 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .326 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Michael Conforto has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 56 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 74 games (+9.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 away games (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)