Team Stats and Prediction for Marlins vs Reds Matchup 7/12/24)

Miami Marlins

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park on July 12, 2024, both teams are navigating challenging seasons. The Reds, with a 45-49 record, are having a below-average year but still outperform the Marlins, who are enduring a dismal 32-61 season. This National League matchup will see Carson Spiers take the mound for the Reds against Yonny Chirinos for the Marlins.

Spiers, a right-hander, has been a mixed bag this season. His 3.64 ERA may look solid on the surface, but his 4.57 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and could regress. Spiers is a high-flyball, low-walk pitcher, which might work to his advantage against a Marlins offense that ranks 30th in MLB in home runs and walks. The Reds, who rank 1st in stolen bases, could exploit Chirinos, who has struggled with a 4.19 ERA despite a more promising 3.38 FIP indicating some bad luck.

Offensively, the Reds have been average, ranking 17th overall but struggling with consistency, as evidenced by their 26th rank in team batting average. However, their power potential (14th in home runs) and speed (1st in stolen bases) provide a balanced attack that could trouble the Marlins’ pitching staff. Elly De La Cruz has been a standout for Cincinnati, boasting a .808 OPS, 15 home runs, and 45 stolen bases this season.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have the worst offense in MLB, ranking 30th overall and in home runs, and 24th in stolen bases and batting average. Jazz Chisholm has been their lone bright spot, with 12 home runs and 18 stolen bases, but the lineup lacks depth and consistency.

In their last outings, the Reds dominated the Rockies 8-1, while the Marlins fell 6-3 to the Astros. Despite the Reds being big favorites with a current moneyline of -170, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as a closer game than the odds suggest. With the Reds’ bullpen ranked 25th and the Marlins’ 14th, late-game scenarios could be pivotal.

Given the projections, there might be value in betting on the Marlins as underdogs. While the Reds have a slightly higher probability of winning, the Marlins’ projected win probability is 8% greater than the betting market suggests, making them an intriguing option for those looking to capitalize on public reluctance to back a struggling team.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Yonny Chirinos – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Yonny Chirinos has tallied 14.1 outs per GS since the start of last season, ranking in the 14th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Vidal Brujan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Vidal Brujan’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 85.4-mph seasonal average has decreased to 75.9-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #23 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Carson Spiers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given his large platoon split, Carson Spiers faces a tough challenge matching up with 6 bats in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.221) provides evidence that Jake Fraley has been lucky this year with his .273 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+9.65 Units / 12% ROI)